Statistics — type 2 diabetes¶
Last curated: 2026-10-30. Conflicting estimates are shown side by side and are not averaged.
Global prevalence and projections¶
| Figure | Year | Population | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 589 million | 2024 | Adults 20–79, all diabetes | IDF Diabetes Atlas 11th edition model | International Diabetes Federation — “Over 250 million people worldwide unaware they have diabetes, according to new IDF research”, https://idf.org/news-and-resources/news/idf-diabetes-atlas-11th-edition/, accessed 2026-10-09 |
| 536.6 million; 10.5% | 2021 | Adults 20–79, all diabetes | IDF model using 219 sources | Sun 2022, PMID 34879977 |
| 853 million | 2050 projection | Adults 20–79, all diabetes | IDF Diabetes Atlas 11th edition projection | International Diabetes Federation — “Over 250 million people worldwide unaware they have diabetes, according to new IDF research”, https://idf.org/news-and-resources/news/idf-diabetes-atlas-11th-edition/, accessed 2026-10-09 |
| 783.2 million; 12.2% | 2045 projection | Adults 20–79 | IDF demographic projection | Sun 2022, PMID 34879977 |
| 529 million (95% UI 500–564); age-standardised 6.1% (5.8–6.5) | 2021 | All ages, all diabetes | GBD Bayesian modelling | GBD 2021, PMID 37356446 |
| >1.31 billion (1.22–1.39) | 2050 projection | All ages | GBD regression projection | GBD 2021, PMID 37356446 |
| T2D = 96.0% (95.1–96.8) of cases | 2021 | Global | Modelled type decomposition | GBD 2021, PMID 37356446 |
| 506.0 million prevalent; 23.9 million incident | 2021 | Global T2D | Secondary GBD analysis | Huang 2025, PMID 40895618 |
Geography and disparities¶
| Figure | Year/population | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban 12.1% vs rural 8.3% | 2021 adults 20–79 | IDF model | PMID 34879977 |
| High-income 11.1% vs low-income 5.5% | 2021 adults 20–79 | IDF model | PMID 34879977 |
| North Africa/Middle East 9.3% (8.7–9.9) age-standardised | 2021 | GBD model | PMID 37356446 |
| Oceania 12.3% (11.5–13.0) age-standardised | 2021 | GBD model | PMID 37356446 |
| Nepal pooled 8.4% (6.2–10.5); urban 8.1%, rural 1.0% | Studies 2000–2014 | Ten-study meta-analysis | Gyawali 2015, PMID 26613684 |
| Slum T2D range 0.9%–25.0% | 62 studies | Systematic review/meta-analysis | Uthman 2022, PMID 35210339 |
Burden and attributable risk¶
| Figure | Year/population | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| T2D = 95.4% (94.9–95.9) of diabetes DALYs | 2021 global | GBD decomposition | PMID 37356446 |
| 75 million T2D DALYs (63–90) | 2021 global | GBD secondary analysis | Zhang 2024, PMID 39151887 |
| High BMI attributable fraction 52.2% (25.5–71.8) of T2D DALYs | 2021 global | Comparative risk assessment | PMID 37356446 |
| Non-elderly incidence 196.3/100,000 (145.2–257.4) → 361.1 (275.2–458.4) | 1990→2021, ages 15–59 | GBD analysis | He 2025, PMID 40348179 |
| Each one-year older diagnosis: 4% lower mortality, 3% lower macrovascular, 5% lower microvascular risk | 1,325,493 adults, 30 countries | 26-study meta-analysis adjusted for current age | Nanayakkara 2021, PMID 33313987 |
Costs¶
| Figure | Year/population | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| >US$1 trillion | 2024 global diabetes health expenditure | IDF Diabetes Atlas 11th edition expenditure estimate | International Diabetes Federation — “Over 250 million people worldwide unaware they have diabetes, according to new IDF research”, https://idf.org/news-and-resources/news/idf-diabetes-atlas-11th-edition/, accessed 2026-10-09 |
| US$966 billion | 2021 global diabetes health expenditure | Attributable-fraction model | PMID 34879977 |
| US$1.054 trillion | 2045 projection | IDF projection | PMID 34879977 |
| Direct annual cost US$242–11,917/person | Studies 2001–2014 | Global systematic review, 2011 international dollars | Seuring 2015, PMID 25787932 |
| Indirect annual cost US$45–16,914/person | Studies 2001–2014 | Same review | PMID 25787932 |
| Total annual cost US$29.91–237.38/person in low/lower-middle-income studies | Eight studies to 2018 | Systematic review | Afroz 2018, PMID 30558591 |
Prevention and remission¶
| Figure | Time | Population/method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| DPP lifestyle incidence −58%; metformin −31% | Mean 2.8 years | 3,234 high-risk adults, RCT | Knowler 2002, PMID 11832527 |
| DPPOS lifestyle −27%; metformin −18% | 15 years | Follow-up by original assignment | PMID 26377054 |
| DiRECT remission 46% vs 4% | 1 year | Cluster RCT, early T2D | PMID 29221645 |
| DiRECT remission 36% vs 3% | 2 years | Trial follow-up | PMID 30852132 |
| DiRECT extension remission 13% vs 5% | 5 years | Extension cohort | PMID 38423026 |
| Remission 86% with ≥15 kg loss vs 7% with 0–5 kg | 1 year | DiRECT subgroup | PMID 29221645 |
Therapy outcomes¶
| Trial statistic | Population | Source |
|---|---|---|
| EMPA-REG MACE HR 0.86; CV death −38%; HF admission −35%; all-cause death −32% | T2D + established CVD | Zinman 2015, PMID 26378978 |
| LEADER MACE HR 0.87; CV death HR 0.78 | T2D high CV risk | Marso 2016, PMID 27295427 |
| REWIND MACE 12.0% vs 13.4%; HR 0.88 (0.79–0.99) | T2D with/without prior CVD | Gerstein 2019, PMID 31189511 |
| CREDENCE kidney composite HR 0.70 | T2D + albuminuric CKD | Perkovic 2019, PMID 30990260 |
| DAPA-CKD primary composite HR 0.61 | CKD with/without diabetes | Heerspink 2020, PMID 32970396 |
| SELECT MACE HR 0.80 | Obesity + CVD, no diabetes | Lincoff 2023, PMID 37952131 |
| Tirzepatide HbA1c change up to −2.30 percentage points | T2D, SURPASS-2 | Frías 2021, PMID 34170647 |
| Tirzepatide weight −20.9% at 15 mg | Obesity without diabetes, 72 weeks | Jastreboff 2022, PMID 35658024 |
Youth-onset disease¶
| Figure | Population/time | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Glycaemic failure 45.6% | TODAY, mean 3.9 years | PMID 22540912 |
| ≥1 microvascular complication 60.1% | Mean age 26.4, duration 13.3 years | PMID 34320286 |
| ≥2 microvascular complications 28.4% | Same cohort | PMID 34320286 |
Additional prevalence and care-cascade estimates¶
| Figure | Year/population | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 828 million adults (95% CrI 757–908 million) | 2022; age ≥18; all diabetes | Bayesian pooling of 1,108 measured population studies | NCD-RisC 2024, PMID 39549716 |
| 252 million unaware of diabetes | 2024; adults 20–79, all diabetes | IDF Diabetes Atlas 11th edition model | International Diabetes Federation — “Over 250 million people worldwide unaware they have diabetes, according to new IDF research”, https://idf.org/news-and-resources/news/idf-diabetes-atlas-11th-edition/, accessed 2026-10-09 |
| 445 million untreated (401–496 million); 59% | 2022; age ≥30 with diabetes | Medication coverage in same pooled analysis | PMID 39549716 |
| 108 million → 422 million | 1980→2014; adults; all diabetes | 751 population-based studies | NCD-RisC 2016, PMID 27061677 |
| 28.5% prevalence change; 39.7% population growth; remainder ageing/interaction | Contribution to 1980–2014 numerical growth | Demographic decomposition | PMID 27061677 |
| Diagnosed 55.8% (95% UI 49.3–62.3) | 2023; age ≥15 global | GBD-linked cascade model | Stafford 2025, PMID 40934935 |
| Treated among diagnosed 91.4% (88.0–94.2) | Same | Same | PMID 40934935 |
| Optimal glycaemia among treated 41.6% (35.7–48.5) | Same | Same | PMID 40934935 |
| Optimal glycaemia on treatment among all diabetes 21.2% (17.4–25.6) | Same | Same | PMID 40934935 |
| Comprehensive recommended treatment coverage 4.6% (3.9–5.4) | 37,094 adults with diabetes in 55 LMIC surveys | Cross-sectional individual-level analysis | Flood 2021, PMID 35211689 |
| Glucose/BP/lipid medication coverage 50.5%/41.3%/6.3% | Same | Self-report, equal country weighting | PMID 35211689 |
| US diabetes 14.3%; undiagnosed 5.2% | 2011–2012 adults | NHANES HbA1c+FPG+OGTT definition | Menke 2015, PMID 26348752 |
| US diabetes 12.3%; 25.2% of cases undiagnosed | Same | NHANES HbA1c+FPG definition without OGTT | PMID 26348752 |
| Within 1 year of laboratory-confirmed diabetes: code + treatment 66.6%; code only 19.7%; treatment only 4.1%; neither 9.6% | 27,650 US commercially insured/Medicare adults, 2017–2023 | Claims linked to laboratory results; abstract-reported | Stimpson 2026, PMID 42832327 |
Prevention, remission and surgery deepening¶
| Figure | Time/population | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finnish DPS diabetes 11% vs 23%; relative reduction 58% | 4 years; 522 adults with IGT | RCT | Tuomilehto 2001, PMID 11333990 |
| Incidence 4.3 vs 7.4/100 person-years; 43% relative reduction | Median 7 years | Post-trial follow-up | Lindström 2006, PMID 17098085 |
| IDPP-1 3-year incidence 55.0% control vs 39.3% lifestyle, 40.5% metformin, 39.5% combination | 531 Asian Indian adults with IGT | RCT | Ramachandran 2006, PMID 16391903 |
| DPP 10-year cumulative reduction 34% lifestyle, 18% metformin | Median 10 years | Randomised assignment follow-up | Knowler 2009, PMID 19878986 |
| Da Qing diabetes HR 0.57 (95% CI 0.41–0.81) | 20 years after 6-year intervention | Clinic-randomised follow-up | Li 2008, PMID 18502303 |
| Da Qing severe retinopathy 9.2% vs 16.2%; HR 0.53 (0.29–0.99) | 20 years | Follow-up | Gong 2011, PMID 21046360 |
| Look AHEAD remission 11.5% vs 2.0% at year 1; 7.3% vs 2.0% at year 4 | 4,503 adults | RCT ancillary analysis | Gregg 2012, PMID 23288372 |
| Real-world consensus remission 3.2%; stricter definitions 0.8%–2.3% | 338,791 assessable insured US adults | Claims plus laboratory cohort | Sheils 2023, PMID 37583561 |
| Remission-associated CKD HR 0.67 (0.52–0.87), CVD HR 0.60 (0.47–0.79) | Look AHEAD follow-up | Post-randomisation adjusted association | Gregg 2024, PMID 38233592 |
| STAMPEDE HbA1c ≤6.0%: 38% bypass, 24% sleeve, 5% medical | 3 years; n=150 | RCT | Schauer 2014, PMID 24679060 |
| SOS T2D life expectancy +2.1 years (0.2–4.0), mortality HR 0.77 (0.61–0.97) | Median 26 years | Prospective controlled cohort | Carlsson 2023, PMID 37438611 |
| ARMMS-T2D remission 58% surgery vs 3% medical-lifestyle | 262 randomised adults; median 11 years (max 14) | Pooled RCT follow-up; abstract-reported | Simonson 2026, PMID 42900776 |
| National DPP: 1.94 (1.44–2.44) fewer diabetes cases per 100 participants at 12 months; 1.58 (0.76–2.39) at 24 months | 245,896 privately insured US adults with prediabetes and a lifestyle-treatment claim | Instrumental-variable natural experiment vs lower-intensity services | Chorniy 2026, PMID 42227951 |
Organ protection and monitoring deepening¶
| Trial/statistic | Population/time | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Steno-2 CV HR 0.47 (0.24–0.73); nephropathy 0.39 (0.17–0.87); retinopathy 0.42 (0.21–0.86) | 160 T2D with microalbuminuria; 7.8 years | Gaede 2003, PMID 12556541 |
| Steno-2 death HR 0.54 (0.32–0.89) | 13.3 years | Gaede 2008, PMID 18256393 |
| EMPEROR-Preserved primary 13.8% vs 17.1%; HR 0.79 (0.69–0.90) | HF EF >40%, ± diabetes | Anker 2021, PMID 34449189 |
| DELIVER primary 16.4% vs 19.5%; HR 0.82 (0.73–0.92) | HF EF >40%, ± diabetes | Solomon 2022, PMID 36027570 |
| SOLOIST-WHF total-event HR 0.67 (0.52–0.85) | T2D after worsening HF | Bhatt 2021, PMID 33200892 |
| SOUL MACE 12.0% vs 13.8%; HR 0.86 (0.77–0.96) | 9,650 high-risk T2D | McGuire 2025, PMID 40162642 |
| SURPASS-CVOT MACE 12.2% vs 13.1%; HR 0.92 (95.3% CI 0.83–1.01) | Tirzepatide vs dulaglutide; 13,165 modified ITT | Nicholls 2025, PMID 41406444 |
| MOBILE HbA1c difference −0.4 points (−0.8 to −0.1); time-in-range +15 points (8–23) | 175 basal-insulin-treated adults; 8 months | Martens 2021, PMID 34077499 |
| CONNECT HbA1c difference −0.9 points (−1.1 to −0.6); time-in-range +21 points (16–26) | 283 non-insulin-treated adults, US primary care; 26 weeks | Oser 2026, PMID 42878622 |
| ACHIEVE-4 MACE-4 4.2% vs 5.0%; HR 0.84 (0.59–1.20) | Orforglipron vs insulin glargine; 2,749 T2D with CVD/CKD; median 2 years | Klein 2026, PMID 42815506 |
| Semaglutide pooled kidney composite (incl. CV death) HR 0.84 (0.77–0.91); excluding CV death HR 0.80 (0.69–0.92) | SELECT+FLOW+SOUL, n=30,787, with and without diabetes | Mann 2026, PMID 42567173 |
| MASLD prevalence 65.33% (62.35%–68.18%); advanced fibrosis 15.49% in biopsy studies | T2D meta-analysis | Younossi 2024, PMID 38521116 |
| Charcot foot five-year mortality 24.5% (17.2%–32.6%); amputation 15% | Meta-analysis | Yammine 2022, PMID 36028441 |
Youth and acute safety deepening¶
| Figure | Population/time | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Youth T2D incidence 17.9/100,000; annual increase 5.31% (4.46%–6.17%) | US ages 10–19, 2017–2018/end of 2002–2018 trend | Wagenknecht 2023, PMID 36868256 |
| Youth T2D prevalence 0.34→0.67/1,000; +95.3% (77.0%–115.4%) | Six US areas, 2001→2017 | Lawrence 2021, PMID 34427600 |
| Liraglutide HbA1c treatment difference −1.06 points | Ages 10–<17, 26 weeks | Tamborlane 2019, PMID 31034184 |
| Empagliflozin HbA1c difference −0.84 points (−1.50 to −0.19) | Ages 10–17, 26 weeks | Laffel 2023, PMID 36738751 |
| Combined DKA–HHS mortality OR 2.7 (1.4–4.9) vs isolated crises | 1,211 crisis admissions | Pasquel 2020, PMID 31704689 |
| HHS inpatient mortality 1.44%→0.77% | US admissions 2008→2018 | Shaka 2022, PMID 35122906 |
| SGLT2-inhibitor ketoacidosis 2.43/1,000 person-years; 25.1% still on SGLT2i 1 year after event | 322,597 treatment episodes, Sweden/Denmark/Norway 2013–2021/22 | Kadesjö 2026, PMID 42679839 |
| Severe hypoglycaemia associated death HR 2.69 (1.97–3.67) | ADVANCE; 11,140 participants | Zoungas 2010, PMID 20925543 |
Diabetes distress intervention evidence¶
| Figure | Population/time | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distress SMD −0.31 (95% CI −0.50 to −0.13) for psychological intervention vs usual care | Adults with T2D; 21 RCTs, n=4,550 | EASD-commissioned meta-analysis; very low-certainty evidence | Schipper 2026, PMID 42726276; Speight 2026, PMID 42744915 |
| Distress SMD −0.34 (95% CI −0.56 to −0.11) for education vs usual care | Adults with T2D; 3 RCTs, n=317 | Same synthesis; low-certainty evidence | Schipper 2026, PMID 42726276; Speight 2026, PMID 42744915 |
October 2026 achieved-glycaemia analysis¶
| Figure | Population/time | Method and limitation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-cause mortality HR 0.282 (95% CI 0.108–0.738), updated mean HbA1c <6.5% versus ≥8.5% | Japanese J-DOIT3 participants after a one-year landmark | Time-dependent achieved-exposure association, Table 4(c); pooled original treatment groups, not randomised HbA1c categories; does not establish a safe lower target | Noda 2026, PMID 42912779 |
IDF’s current facts-and-figures page and the WHO diabetes fact sheet were rechecked on 2026-10-30. They still present the previously catalogued 2024 IDF and 2022 WHO prevalence years; no newer burden estimate was added from those pages (IDF — “Facts & figures”, https://idf.org/about-diabetes/facts-figures/; WHO — “Diabetes”, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diabetes, both accessed 2026-10-30).
Known conflicts and caveats¶
- IDF and GBD totals use different age ranges, sources and models; do not average them. The 2024 IDF Atlas values were published in April 2025 and recovered during this sweep; they are not new 2026 statistics. All IDF totals here cover all diabetes, not type 2 alone.
- “Diabetes” is not always type-specific; T2D is often calculated by modelled subtraction.
- DALYs and attributable fractions are model outputs with uncertainty wider than sampling error.
- Cost estimates use incompatible currencies, years, health-system perspectives and included components.
- Trial relative effects cannot be converted to population impact without baseline risk, adherence and access.
- Remission denominators differ at five years because extension participation is selective.
- NCD-RisC, IDF and GBD use different ages, tests and modelling; their totals are parallel estimands.
- Care-cascade proportions are conditional: treated-among-diagnosed can be high while population control remains low.
- Post-randomisation remission associations do not prove that remission itself causes lower event rates.
- Historical surgical cohorts include procedures and medical comparators unlike current practice.
- Youth projections range widely according to whether incidence is held constant or extrapolated.