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Depression statistics¶
Last updated: 2026-10-29. Figures are not averaged across incompatible methods. The WHO fact sheet was re-opened on this date, and its modeled figures were unchanged from 2026-10-22.
Prevalence and burden¶
| Figure | Value | Year/population | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifetime DSM-5 MDD prevalence | 20.6% | US adults, NESARC-III | structured diagnostic interview | Hasin 2018, PMID 29450462 |
| 12-month DSM-5 MDD prevalence | 10.4% | US adults, NESARC-III | structured diagnostic interview | Hasin 2018, PMID 29450462 |
| Mental-disorder DALYs | 125.3 million | 204 countries/territories, 2019 | GBD modeling | PMID 35026139 |
| Share of all DALYs | 4.9% | global, 2019 | GBD modeling | PMID 35026139 |
| Age-standardized DALY rate | 1,581→1,566/100,000 | global, 1990→2019 | harmonized GBD series | PMID 35026139 |
| US MDD economic burden | $326.2 billion | US adults, 2018, 2020 dollars | claims/workplace/suicide model | Greenberg 2021, PMID 33950419 |
| Inflation-adjusted burden change | +37.9% | US, 2010–2018 | modeled comparison | PMID 33950419 |
| US healthcare spending associated with MDD | $204.58 billion; 5.58% of $3.67 trillion personal healthcare spending | US adults, pooled MEPS 2021–2023 applied to 2023 National Health Expenditure Accounts; dental and age ≤18 excluded | two-part covariate-adjusted model, counterfactual of no MDD; MDD identified by ICD-10-CM F32 (depressive episode); healthcare spending only, no workplace or suicide costs, so not comparable with Greenberg's total burden | Ghimire 2026, PMID 42913960 |
| MDD-associated share by payer | Medicaid 10.00%; Medicare 4.90%; other federal 11.77% | same | same model | Ghimire 2026, PMID 42913960 |
WHO portal update — published 2026-09-11¶
| Figure | Value | Year/population | Method and scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| People experiencing depression | approximately 322 million; 4% | world population, 2023 | WHO fact sheet citing GBD 2023 modeled estimates; depression, not a lifetime DSM-5 MDD interview measure | WHO — “Depressive disorder (depression)”, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/depression, accessed 2026-10-29 |
| Adults experiencing depression | 5.2% overall; 4.1% men; 6.2% women | global adults, 2023 | same modeled source; retain separately from country surveys and prior GBD releases | same WHO fact sheet, accessed 2026-10-29 |
| Older adults experiencing depression | 5.4% | global adults aged 70 years and older, 2023 | same modeled source and age definition | same WHO fact sheet, accessed 2026-10-29 |
The newly checked MHA state/county dashboard contains voluntary online screening data through June 2026. It is a source of screening signals, not a population MDD prevalence denominator; no national prevalence estimate was imported from it. (Mental Health America — “MHA Data Methodology”, https://mhanational.org/data-in-your-community/mha-data-methodology/, accessed 2026-10-15.)
Treatment effects¶
| Figure | Value | Population/method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antidepressant acute response OR range | 1.37–2.13 vs placebo | 522 trials; 116,477 adults | Cipriani 2018, PMID 29477251 |
| Published effect-size inflation | 32% | FDA registration trials vs publications | Turner 2008, PMID 18199864 |
| Continuation relapse | 18% drug vs 41% placebo | responders randomized continue/stop | Geddes 2003, PMID 12606176 |
| Combination response advantage | RR 1.27 vs medication; 1.25 vs psychotherapy | 101-trial network meta-analysis | Cuijpers 2020, PMID 31922679 |
| Esketamine day-28 MADRS difference | −4.0 points | TRD phase 3 | Popova 2019, PMID 31109201 |
| ECT vs sham standardized effect | −0.91 | older meta-analysis | UK ECT Review Group 2003, PMID 12642045 |
| ECT vs pharmacotherapy standardized effect | −0.80 | older meta-analysis | PMID 12642045 |
STAR*D — keep competing interpretations separate¶
| Estimate | Value | Rule | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Step-1 QIDS-SR remission | 36.8% | original report | Rush 2006, PMID 17074942 |
| Step-2 remission | 30.6% | original report | PMID 17074942 |
| Step-3 remission | 13.7% | original report | PMID 17074942 |
| Step-4 remission | 13.0% | original report | PMID 17074942 |
| Theoretical cumulative remission | 67% | original cumulative calculation | PMID 17074942 |
| Protocol-faithful estimates | materially lower | prespecified criteria/denominators | Pigott 2023, PMID 37491091 |
Diagnostic heterogeneity¶
| Figure | Value | Population/method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unique symptom profiles | 1,030 among 3,703 | STAR*D symptom profiles | Fried 2015, PMID 25451401 |
| Profiles occurring once | 48.6% | same | PMID 25451401 |
| Anxious-distress specifier | 74.6% | US DSM-5 MDD | Hasin 2018, PMID 29450462 |
| Mixed-features specifier | 15.5% | US DSM-5 MDD | PMID 29450462 |
Diagnostic accuracy and longitudinal conversion¶
| Figure | Value | Population/method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHQ-9 ≥10 sensitivity | 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.89) | 100-study updated IPD meta-analysis; semistructured interview reference | Negeri 2021, PMID 34610915 |
| PHQ-9 ≥10 specificity | 0.85 (95% CI 0.82–0.87) | same | PMID 34610915 |
| PHQ-2 ≥2 sensitivity | 0.91 (95% CI 0.88–0.94) | IPD meta-analysis; semistructured interview reference | Levis 2020, PMID 32515813 |
| PHQ-2 ≥2 specificity | 0.67 (95% CI 0.64–0.71) | same | PMID 32515813 |
| Two-stage PHQ-2→PHQ-9 full-form reduction | 57% (95% CI 56–58%) | modeled administration reduction | PMID 32515813 |
| Bipolar conversion, 13 years | 5.84% (95% CI 5.72–5.96) | Swedish registers after major-depression registration | Rhee 2023, PMID 37427550 |
| Bipolar/psychotic-spectrum conversion, 15 years | 11.1% (95% CI 10.7–11.6) | 43,495 first hospitalizations for unipolar depression | Baryshnikov 2020, PMID 32385906 |
| Psychotic depression → bipolar conversion | SHR 2.0 (95% CI 1.5–2.7) | same cohort, vs mild depression | PMID 32385906 |
Population heterogeneity and coverage¶
| Figure | Value | Population/method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| MDD prevalence in older adults | 13.3% (95% CI 8.4–20.3) | 20-study global meta-analysis, n=18,953 | Abdoli 2022, PMID 34742925 |
| MDD prevalence in LGBTQ+ samples | 32.2% (95% CI 30.8–33.6); I² 99.6% | 48-study meta-analysis, n=4,616,903 | Cai 2024, PMID 38795782 |
| Adolescent diagnosed MDD point prevalence | 8% (95% CI 2–13) | 72-study global synthesis | Shorey 2022, PMID 34569066 |
| Adolescent elevated-symptom point prevalence | 34% (95% CI 30–38) | screening/symptom threshold, not diagnosed MDD | PMID 34569066 |
| Any health-service coverage, high-income | 51% (95% UI 20–82) | Bayesian meta-regression, 149 studies | Moitra 2022, PMID 35167593 |
| Any health-service coverage, low/lower-middle income | 20% (95% UI 1–53) | same | PMID 35167593 |
| Minimally adequate treatment, high-income | 23% (95% UI 2–55) | same | PMID 35167593 |
| Minimally adequate treatment, low/lower-middle income | 3% (95% UI <1–25) | same | PMID 35167593 |
Mechanisms and genetics — group estimates only¶
| Figure | Value | Population/method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-degree-relative aggregation | OR 2.84 (95% CI 2.31–3.49) | family-study meta-analysis | Sullivan 2000, PMID 11007705 |
| Twin heritability of liability | 37% (95% CI 31–42) | five twin studies | PMID 11007705 |
| Multi-ancestry GWAS scale | 688,808 cases; 4,364,225 controls; 635 loci | 29-country GWAS meta-analysis | PGC 2025, PMID 39814019 |
| Maximum liability variance explained by depression PGS | 5.8% in Europeans | same study | PMID 39814019 |
| Drug-naïve MDD TNF-α difference | SMD 1.04 (95% CI 0.69–1.39) | 23-study cytokine meta-analysis | Islam 2023, PMID 37625799 |
| Drug-naïve MDD CRP difference | SMD 0.18 (95% CI −0.85–1.23) | same; nonsignificant | PMID 37625799 |
| Reward-processing imaging database | 41 studies; 794 MDD, 803 controls | coordinate-based meta-analysis | Liu 2019, PMID 31712555 |
Additional treatment and harm anchors¶
| Figure | Value | Population/method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary-care CBT symptom effect | Hedges g 0.22 (95% CI 0.15–0.30) | 34 RCTs; 5,358 participants | Santoft 2019, PMID 30688184 |
| Primary-care CBT remission | OR 1.56 (95% CI 1.15–2.14) | same | PMID 30688184 |
| Task-shared psychotherapy symptom effect | Hedges g −0.32 (95% CI −0.38 to −0.26; lower PHQ-9 favored intervention) | 11-trial LMIC IPD meta-analysis, n=4,145 | Karyotaki 2022, PMID 35319740 |
| Task-shared psychotherapy remission | OR 1.87 (95% CI 1.20–1.99) | same | PMID 35319740 |
| VAST-D remission | 22.3% switch-bupropion; 26.9% augment-bupropion; 28.9% augment-aripiprazole | 1,522 predominantly male veterans, 12 weeks | Mohamed 2017, PMID 28697253 |
| Aripiprazole augmentation vs switch | RR 1.30 (95% CI 1.05–1.60) for remission | VAST-D | PMID 28697253 |
| OPTIMUM wellbeing difference | +2.79 points (95% CI 0.56–5.02) | aripiprazole augmentation vs bupropion switch, ≥60 years | Lenze 2023, PMID 36867173 |
| IV ketamine symptom effect | Hedges g 1.52 (95% CI 0.98–2.22) | dose-escalation RCT meta-analysis; low-quality evidence | Seshadri 2024, PMID 38537759 |
| Intranasal esketamine symptom effect | Hedges g 0.31 (95% CI 0.18–0.44) | same | PMID 38537759 |
| Antidepressant discontinuation symptom load, week 1 | SMD 0.31 (95% CI 0.23–0.39), about one additional DESS symptom | 11 RCTs, n=3,915 | Kalfas 2025, PMID 40632531 |
| Discontinuation-associated dizziness | OR 5.52 (95% CI 3.81–8.01); risk difference 6.24% | RCT meta-analysis vs placebo discontinuation | PMID 40632531 |
| Escitalopram vs sertraline 6-month weight change | +0.41 kg (95% CI 0.31–0.52) | target-trial emulation, 183,118 initiators | Petimar 2024, PMID 38950403 |
| Bupropion vs sertraline 6-month weight change | −0.22 kg (95% CI −0.33 to −0.12) | same | PMID 38950403 |
| Depression all-cause mortality | RR 2.10 (95% CI 1.87–2.35) | 268-study cohort meta-analysis | Chan 2025, PMID 40948054 |
| Depression-associated suicide mortality | RR 9.89 (95% CI 7.59–12.88) | same | PMID 40948054 |
| Natural-cause mortality | RR 1.63 (95% CI 1.51–1.75) | same | PMID 40948054 |
Known conflicts and caveats¶
- Survey prevalence varies by interview, recall period, threshold, and bipolar exclusions; screening prevalence is not MDD prevalence.
- US cost figures differ in scope: Greenberg 2021 ($326.2 billion, PMID 33950419) models total economic burden, including workplace and suicide costs. Ghimire 2026 ($204.58 billion, PMID 42913960) estimates incremental healthcare spending only, and its F32 case definition counts any depressive episode rather than recurrent MDD. Do not subtract one from the other.
- GBD estimates are modeled and revisions can change historical series; compare within one release.
- STAR*D's 67% cumulative figure and protocol-faithful reanalysis answer different denominator/estimand choices; do not average them.
- Odds ratios are not risk differences; absolute antidepressant benefit depends on placebo response.
- Randomized-withdrawal relapse trials are enriched for prior response and tolerability and may confound withdrawal with relapse.