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GBD 2021 Osteoarthritis Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050. Lancet Rheumatol. 2023;5:e508–e522. PMID 37675071

One-paragraph summary

GBD modeled symptomatic, radiographically confirmed hand, hip, knee and other-site OA across 204 countries and territories, adjusting alternative case definitions to a reference definition. It estimated 595 million prevalent cases (95% uncertainty interval 535–656 million) in 2020, 7.6% (6.8–8.4%) of the global population. Total cases increased 132.2% (130.3–134.1%) from 1990; projected 2020–2050 increases were 74.9% for knee, 48.6% for hand, 78.6% for hip and 95.1% for other OA.

Key findings

  • Age-standardized OA YLD rate: 255.0 (95% UI 119.7–557.2) per 100,000 in 2020, 9.5% above 1990.
  • Knee was the most common modeled site.
  • High BMI accounted for an estimated 20.4% of OA burden, with a wide UI crossing zero (-1.7% to 36.6%).
  • OA ranked seventh among causes of YLDs in adults aged ≥70 years.

Limitations

  • Primary population-survey inputs covered 26 countries for knee, 23 for hip and 42 for hand, requiring modeling beyond direct data.
  • Claims data informed “other OA”; case-definition adjustment and disability weights introduce model dependence.
  • Occupational hazards and recreational injury prevention were not included as attributable risks.
  • Projections are conditional on demographic and exposure assumptions, not observed futures.

Why it matters

This is the current global denominator for OA burden and makes joint-specific projections rather than treating OA as a single site. Its uncertainty intervals and input limitations should travel with every quoted estimate.

Cited by wiki pages

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