Rheumatoid arthritis — statistics sheet¶
Last curated: 2026-11-01. Figures are not pooled across incompatible definitions. Every row states source, year, population and method.
Population burden¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global prevalent cases | 17.6 million | 204 countries/territories, 2020 | GBD 2021 modelling | GBD 2021 RA Collaborators 2023, PMID 37795020 |
| Age-standardized prevalence | 208.8 per 100,000 | Global, 2020 | GBD reference standard | PMID 37795020 |
| Projected prevalent cases | 31.7 million | Global, 2050 | Demographic/GBD projection | PMID 37795020 |
| Absolute projected increase | 14.1 million | 2020→2050 | Difference of reported counts | PMID 37795020 |
| Relative projected increase | ~80% | 2020→2050 | 31.7/17.6 − 1 | PMID 37795020 |
| Countries in earlier GBD series | 195 | 1990–2017 | GBD 2017 | Safiri 2019, PMID 31511227 |
| LMIC prevalent cases | 12.6 million | 129 low- and middle-income countries, 2023 | GBD 2023 modelling | Wang 2026, PMID 42495527 |
| Upper-middle- versus low-income prevalence ratio | 4.1-fold | 129 LMICs, 2023 | GBD 2023 modelling stratified by gross national income | PMID 42495527 |
| Adult worldwide prevalence (review) | 0.53% of adults | Worldwide adults | JAMA narrative review, 2026 | Smolen 2026, PMID 42720931 |
| US adult prevalence (review) | 0.74% of adults | US adults | Same review | PMID 42720931 |
Classification and measurement thresholds¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 classification threshold | ≥6/10 | Eligible synovitis population | ACR/EULAR criteria development | Aletaha 2010, PMID 20872595 |
| Joint-domain maximum | 5 points | >10 joints including ≥1 small joint | Criteria score | PMID 20872595 |
| Serology maximum | 3 points | High-positive RF or ACPA | Criteria score | PMID 20872595 |
| Duration contribution | 1 point | Symptoms ≥6 weeks | Criteria score | PMID 20872595 |
| Validation cohort | 270 | Recent-onset arthritis, 2-year follow-up | Prospective cohort | Varache 2011, PMID 21572146 |
| Boolean 2.0 tender joints | ≤1 | Trial validation datasets | Remission definition | Studenic 2023, PMID 36274193 |
| Boolean 2.0 swollen joints | ≤1 | Trial validation datasets | Remission definition | PMID 36274193 |
| Boolean 2.0 CRP | ≤1 mg/dL | Trial validation datasets | Remission definition | PMID 36274193 |
| Boolean 2.0 patient global | ≤2/10 | Trial validation datasets | Revised threshold | PMID 36274193 |
| SDAI remission | ≤3.3 | RA activity assessment | Index threshold | PMID 36274193 |
| CDAI remission | ≤2.8 | RA activity assessment | Index threshold | Messelink 2023, PMID 37116986 |
| DAS28 remission | <2.6 | RA activity assessment | Historical index threshold | Messelink 2023, PMID 37116986 |
Strategy and treatment-trial scale¶
| Study/metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TICORA randomized | 111 | Active RA, 2004 | Single-blind RCT | Grigor 2004, PMID 15262104 |
| TICORA screened | 183 | Two teaching hospitals | Trial screening | PMID 15262104 |
| FIN-RACo randomized cohort | 195 | Early active RA | Combination vs single DMARD RCT/follow-up | Korpela 2004, PMID 15248204 |
| ATTRACT randomized | 428 | Active despite MTX | 54-week RCT | Lipsky 2000, PMID 11096166 |
| PREMIER randomized | 799 | Early aggressive MTX-naive RA | 2-year RCT | Breedveld 2006, PMID 16385520 |
| TEMPO randomized | 686 | Active RA | Double-blind RCT | Klareskog 2004, PMID 15001324 |
| AMBITION randomized | 673 | Active RA | 24-week RCT | Jones 2010, PMID 19297346 |
| SELECT-COMPARE randomized | 1,629 | MTX inadequate response | Phase 3 RCT | Fleischmann 2019, PMID 31287230 |
| R4RA randomized | 164 | Anti-TNF inadequate response | Biopsy-stratified phase 4 RCT | Humby 2021, PMID 33485455 |
| Biologic poor response | ~40% | Established RA | R4RA background estimate | PMID 33485455 |
| Failure after ≥4 advanced therapies | 1.6% | EULAR-defined D2T cohorts | Meta-analysis | Xie 2026, PMID 41188120 |
Safety and systemic burden¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORAL Surveillance randomized | 4,362 | RA age ≥50 plus ≥1 CV risk factor | Active-comparator safety RCT | Ytterberg 2022, PMID 35081280 |
| Tofacitinib doses tested | 5 or 10 mg twice daily | Same trial | Randomized dose arms | PMID 35081280 |
| Mortality meta-analysis studies | 17 | RA cohorts | Meta-analysis | Lee 2024, PMID 38918258 |
| Mortality meta-analysis patients | 486,098 | Multiple countries/eras | Meta-analysis | PMID 38918258 |
| Deaths included | 63,988 | Same | Meta-analysis | PMID 38918258 |
| RA-ILD share of RA mortality | 10–20% | Review-level estimate | Literature synthesis | Cassone 2020, PMID 32290218 |
| RA-ILD mean survival cited in review | 5–8 years | Historical/heterogeneous RA-ILD cohorts | Review synthesis | PMID 32290218 |
| RA-ILD JAK observational studies | 7 | Published through review search | Systematic review | Narváez 2024, PMID 39270812 |
| RA-ILD incident-risk studies in same review | 3 | RA cohorts | Systematic review | PMID 39270812 |
| RA-ILD prediction derivation cohort | 1,156 | Single center | Retrospective model | Yao 2025, PMID 41299487 |
| Derivation RA-ILD cases | 400 | Same | Retrospective model | PMID 41299487 |
| External validation cases/controls | 178/178 | Chinese registry | External validation | PMID 41299487 |
Difficult-to-treat, fatigue and precision¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported D2T prevalence range | 5.5–27.5% | Heterogeneous RA cohorts | Review synthesis | Hofman 2025, PMID 39383505 |
| D2T poly-refractory cohort | 1,591 | b/tsDMARD-treated RA | Cross-sectional ultrasound study | David 2024, PMID 38059326 |
| Blinatumomab compassionate series | 6 | Multidrug-resistant RA | Case series | Bucci 2024, PMID 38671240 |
| Severe fatigue | at least 1 in 6 | Treated RA literature | Review synthesis | Pope 2020, PMID 32385141 |
| Residual-symptom review reports | 55 | Literature through 2018 | Systematic review | Michaud 2021, PMID 32619340 |
| Unique studies in residual review | 53 | Same | Systematic review | PMID 32619340 |
| Plasma-proteome RA cohort | 278 | Longitudinal RA | Proteomics cohort | He 2025, PMID 40691443 |
| At-risk participants in proteome study | 60 | Same | Longitudinal cohort | PMID 40691443 |
| Healthy controls in proteome study | 99 | Same | Cohort | PMID 40691443 |
| Baricitinib 24-month retention | 58.2% overall; 42.0% D2T | Japan; 353 total, 88 D2T | 24-month observational cohort | Ikeda 2026, PMID 42667647 |
| Baricitinib CDAI remission | 36.4% overall; 22.9% D2T | Same | Observational outcome | PMID 42667647 |
| TNFA methylation model AUC | 0.760 combined versus 0.699 clinical-only | 201 early untreated RA | Treatment-response biomarker cohort | Dalix 2026, PMID 42664067 |
Periodic-sweep additions — treatment and systemic outcomes¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glucocorticoid use at 12 months | 47% oral; 26% parenteral; 8% no early glucocorticoid | 2,222 Canadian early-RA participants, 2007–2023 | Observational cohort; exposure in first 3 months | Fernández-Codina 2026, PMID 42665531 |
| Adjusted odds of glucocorticoid use at 12 months | OR 9.8 oral; 4.1 parenteral, versus no early glucocorticoid | Same | Multivariable logistic regression | PMID 42665531 |
| CKD-stage progression | 106/601 over five years | Japanese RA cohort | Retrospective cohort | Sugiyama 2026, PMID 42667508 |
Prevention trials¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIAA treatment duration | 6 months | ACPA-positive arthralgia + MRI inflammation | Placebo-controlled RCT | Rech 2024, PMID 38364841 |
| ARIAA centers | 14 | Germany, Spain, Czech Republic | Multicenter RCT | PMID 38364841 |
| APIPPRA UK centers | 28 | Autoantibody-positive inflammatory joint pain | Phase 2b RCT | Cope 2024, PMID 38364839 |
| APIPPRA Netherlands centers | 3 | Same | Phase 2b RCT | PMID 38364839 |
| TREAT EARLIER treatment duration | 1 year | Arthralgia + MRI subclinical inflammation | Proof-of-concept RCT | Krijbolder 2022, PMID 35871815 |
| TREAT EARLIER follow-up | 4 years | ACPA-negative subgroup analysis | Long-term follow-up | Dumoulin 2024, PMID 39303731 |
| TREAT EARLIER five-year overall RA onset | 22% treatment vs 27% placebo; HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.47–1.34) | 236 clinically suspect arthralgia participants | Randomized follow-up | Mulligen 2026, PMID 42392130 |
| TREAT EARLIER increased-risk ACPA-negative subgroup | 9% treatment vs 32% placebo; HR 0.24 (95% CI 0.07–0.87); NNT 4 | 66 participants; 5 years | Prespecified risk-stratified follow-up | PMID 42392130 |
| APIPPRA/ALTO arthritis-free-survival difference | 4.9 months (95% CI 0.1–9.6; p=0.044) at 4 years | 143 long-term participants; median follow-up 55 months | Masked randomized follow-up | Cope 2026, PMID 41576971 |
| StopRA clinical RA at 36 months | 30.4% HCQ vs 32.9% placebo; risk difference −0.058 (95% CI −0.336 to 0.220) | 142 modified-ITT anti-CCP3-high participants | Phase 2 RCT | Deane 2026, PMID 40884017 |
Known conflicts and caveats¶
- GBD figures are modelled and should not be averaged with claims or examination-survey prevalence.
- RA-ILD pooled prevalence is shown with I² and study design because systematic HRCT, clinical coding and symptomatic cohorts estimate different constructs; 18.7% is not a universal clinical prevalence.
- Historical cervical-spine prevalence up to 80% comes from severe-era cohorts and is not a modern population estimate (Joaquim 2014, PMID 25151973).
- D2T prevalence depends on whether symptoms, objective inflammation and access-related failure are included.
- Trial enrollment is not an effect size; it is shown to indicate evidence scale.
- Drug-class event rates cannot be transported across baseline cardiovascular, infection or cancer risk without absolute-risk recalculation.
Deepening additions — population and diagnostic performance¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global pooled prevalence | 0.46% (95% CI 0.39–0.54) | 67 studies; 742,246 cases/211.6 million controls; literature 1980–2019 | Random-effects meta-analysis; I²=99.9%, prediction interval 0.06–1.27% | Almutairi 2021, PMID 33175207 |
| Linked-data prevalence subgroup | 0.69% (95% CI 0.47–0.95) | Record-linkage studies | Meta-analysis subgroup | PMID 33175207 |
| 2010 criteria sensitivity/specificity | 0.82 (95% CI 0.79–0.84) / 0.61 (0.59–0.64) | 6,816 patients in 17 full articles | Systematic review/meta-analysis | Radner 2014, PMID 23592710 |
| ACPA sensitivity/specificity | 67% (95% CI 62–72) / 95% (94–97) | 37 studies | Diagnostic meta-analysis | Nishimura 2007, PMID 17548411 |
| ACPA positive/negative likelihood ratios | 12.46 / 0.36 | Same | Diagnostic meta-analysis | PMID 17548411 |
| RF sensitivity/specificity | 69% (95% CI 65–73) / 85% (82–88) | 50 studies | Diagnostic meta-analysis | PMID 17548411 |
| Major depression prevalence | 16.8% (95% CI 10–24) | 72 studies; 13,189 patients | Diagnostic-definition meta-analysis | Matcham 2013, PMID 24003249 |
| PHQ-9-defined depression | 38.8% (95% CI 34–43) | RA cross-sectional studies | Screening-instrument subgroup | PMID 24003249 |
Deepening additions — treatment and strategy effects¶
| Study/metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RACAT DAS28 change | −2.1 triple therapy vs −2.3 etanercept–MTX; upper 95% confidence limit 0.41 below 0.6 margin | 353 MTX inadequate responders; 48 weeks | Double-blind noninferiority RCT | O'Dell 2013, PMID 23755969 |
| TEAR week-102 radiographic change | 0.64 etanercept–MTX vs 1.69 triple therapy; p=0.047 | Early aggressive RA; 2 years | Randomized strategy trial | Moreland 2012, PMID 22508468 |
| CAMERA ever-remission | 50% intensive vs 37% conventional; p=0.03 | 299 early RA; 2 years | Open-label randomized strategy trial | Verstappen 2007, PMID 17519278 |
| BeSt one-year radiographic progression | Median 2.0, 2.5, 1.0 and 0.5 across four strategies; p<0.001 | 508 early RA | Randomized strategy trial | Goekoop-Ruiterman 2005, PMID 16258899 |
| NORD-STAR CDAI remission | 39.2% conventional; 59.3% abatacept; 52.3% certolizumab; 51.9% tocilizumab | 812 treatment-naive early RA; week 48 | Randomized active-comparator trial | Østergaard 2023, PMID 37423647 |
| FINCH 2 ACR20 | 66.0% filgotinib 200 mg, 57.5% 100 mg, 31.1% placebo | 448 biologic inadequate responders; week 12 | Phase 3 placebo-controlled RCT | Genovese 2019, PMID 31334793 |
| ARCTIC primary endpoint | 22% ultrasound target vs 19% clinical target; difference 3.3% (95% CI −7.1 to 13.7) | 230 early RA; 2 years | Randomized strategy trial | Haavardsholm 2016, PMID 27530741 |
| TaSER DAS44 change | −2.69 ultrasound vs −2.58 clinical; between-group 95% CI −0.70 to 0.48 | 111 early RA; 18 months | Randomized strategy trial | Dale 2016, PMID 27026689 |
Deepening additions — systemic disease and safety¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI incidence-rate ratio | 2.10 (95% CI 1.52–2.89) | 17 cohorts; 124,894 RA patients | Meta-analysis | Meune 2010, PMID 20656636 |
| Stroke incidence-rate ratio | 1.91 (95% CI 1.73–2.12) | Same | Meta-analysis | PMID 20656636 |
| RA-ILD pooled prevalence | 18.7% (95% CI 15.8–21.6); I²=96.4% | 56 studies; 11,851 RA-ILD cases | Meta-analysis of heterogeneous definitions | Wang 2024, PMID 38547537 |
| RA-ILD UIP mortality HR | 1.88 (95% CI 1.14–3.10) | 23 eligible studies | Prognostic meta-analysis | Qiu 2021, PMID 34635095 |
| INBUILD RA-ILD FVC decline | −82.6 vs −199.3 mL/year; difference 116.7 (95% CI 7.4–226.1) | 89 progressive RA-ILD participants; 52 weeks | Randomized trial subgroup | Matteson 2023, PMID 37209188 |
| RA background VTE OR | 2.23 overall; DVT 2.25; PE 2.15 | 272,884 RA/2.28 million controls | Meta-analysis | Hu 2021, PMID 34859863 |
| Influenza satisfactory vaccine response | 75.5% holding MTX 2 weeks vs 54.5% continuing; p<0.001 | 316 RA patients | Randomized trial | Park 2018, PMID 29572291 |
| RA pregnancy preterm-delivery OR | 1.83 | 11,999 RA pregnancies/9.92 million controls | Meta-analysis | Sim 2023, PMID 36544253 |
| D2T pooled prevalence | 11.7% (95% CI 9.5–14.3) | 23 studies; 27,987 patients; 13 countries | EULAR-definition meta-analysis | Xie 2026, PMID 41188120 |
| Persistently inflammatory share of D2T | 47.1% (95% CI 33.3–61.4) | D2T cohorts | Meta-analysis | PMID 41188120 |
Known conflicts and caveats — deepening addendum¶
- Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity depend on the eligible population and reference standard; classification criteria, ACPA and RF rows are not screening performance in unselected pain.
- The global 0.46% pooled prevalence has I²=99.9% and a 0.06–1.27% prediction interval; it must not replace a locally validated estimate.
- Strategy-trial effects combine drug sequence, visit frequency, escalation rules and era; they are not pure drug effects.
- RA-ILD estimates deliberately retain design and heterogeneity. HRCT-detected abnormalities, clinically coded ILD and progressive fibrotic RA-ILD are different denominators.
- Relative safety estimates require baseline absolute risk, comparator, geography, dose and exposure time; “not statistically significant” does not establish equivalence.
- JAMA adult prevalence (0.53% worldwide / 0.74% US) uses an adult denominator and is not interchangeable with GBD all-age modelled prevalence.
2026-10-11 sweep additions¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| b/tsDMARD taper vs continuation, LDA at 24 weeks | 88.2% vs 89.6%; RD −1.43% (95% CI −8.09 to 5.23) | 348 people with DAS28-ESR LDA ≥6 months | Open-label RCT, non-inferiority margin −10% | Park 2026, PMID 42839723 |
| Any DMARD tapering, flare RR | 1.56 (95% CI 1.26–1.98) | 27 publications; 5,262 participants | Systematic review/meta-analysis of RCTs | Zhang 2026, PMID 42836514 |
| Any DMARD withdrawal, flare RR | 2.23 (95% CI 1.83–2.94) | Same | Same | PMID 42836514 |
| Stop bDMARD / continue csDMARD, flare RR vs maintenance | 3.06 (95% CI 1.81–5.16) | 19 studies; 3,115 people in sustained remission | Frequentist network meta-analysis | Tandi 2026, PMID 42843067 |
| Reduce bDMARD / continue csDMARD, flare RR vs maintenance | 1.17 (95% CI 0.76–1.82) | Same | Same | PMID 42843067 |
| First-line b/tsDMARD+MTX vs MTX, DAS28 remission at 6 months | RR 1.62 (95% CI 1.39–1.89) | 29 trials; 13,387 MTX-naive early RA | Pairwise meta-analysis | Russell 2026, PMID 42755040 |
| Same comparison at 12 months | RR 1.54 (95% CI 1.39–1.71) | Same | Same | PMID 42755040 |
| Residual swollen joints in RA remission | 5–25% | Residual-disease SR; 84 prevalence studies | Systematic review/meta-analysis | Webers 2026, PMID 42485861 |
| JAK ACR20 RR, class 3 obesity vs healthy weight | 0.78 (95% CI 0.71–0.85) | 16 phase 3 trials; 11,883 people | IPD meta-analysis | Bechman 2026, PMID 42546722 |
| JAK vs TNF, MACE in age ≥65 | HR 1.13 (95% CI 0.91–1.41) | 1,304 matched pairs; up to 3 years | Propensity-matched cohort | Ibis 2026, PMID 42823079 |
| JAK vs TNF, VTE in age ≥65 | HR 1.18 (95% CI 0.79–1.78) | Same | Same | PMID 42823079 |
| Blinatumomab week-12 CDAI LDA / remission | 9/15 LDA; 3/15 remission | 15 named-patient MDR-RA | Case series | Bucci 2026, PMID 42595657 |
| Blinatumomab subsequent flare | 14/15 | Same | Same | PMID 42595657 |
| Tofacitinib RA-ILD any AE / deaths / PPF-or-death | 36/39; 3 deaths; 15/39 | 39 people; 48 weeks | Single-arm phase II (NCT05246293) | Rojas-Serrano 2026, PMID 42722091 |
| Tofacitinib RA-ILD FVC change | −72 mL at 48 weeks | Same | Same | PMID 42722091 |
| APIPPRA external validation of 14 risk rules | 10/14 C-statistic <0.6; 4/14 0.6–0.7 | APIPPRA interception cohort | External validation | Jasenecova 2026, PMID 42676706 |
| ATI-450 week-12 ACR20 | 42.2% (20 mg); 34.7% (50 mg); 46.5% placebo | 251 people; phase 2 | ClinicalTrials.gov posted results, 2026-09-28 | NCT05279417 |
2026-10-18 sweep additions¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCTIC 10-year DAS remission | 82% | 179 of 218 surviving ARCTIC participants (230 enrolled), 10 years after early-RA diagnosis | Long-term follow-up of a 2-year treat-to-target RCT cohort | Nordberg 2026, PMID 42881069 |
| ARCTIC 10-year radiographic progression | Median vdH-mSharp change 2.0 (IQR 0.5–4.5) | Same | Same | PMID 42881069 |
| JAK vs TNF, nonfatal MI or ischemic stroke (cardiovascular death excluded), ORAL Surveillance-like population | HR 1.002 (95% CI 0.923–1.088); +2.11 per 1,000 at 5 years | 18,757 matched new-user pairs, age ≥50 with ≥1 CV risk factor | TriNetX target-trial emulation (observational; PubMed mis-indexes as RCT) | McClenahan 2026, PMID 42877103 |
| JAK vs TNF, all-cause mortality (secondary) | HR 1.158 (95% CI 1.058–1.268); +10.4 per 1,000; E-value 1.586 | Same | Same | PMID 42877103 |
| CD19 CAR-T (miv-cel) safety | CRS 6/6 (grade 1–2); ICANS 0/6; 1 dose-limiting grade 3 transaminase rise | 6 people with refractory ACPA-positive RA; 36–52 weeks | Nonrandomized phase 1 (NCT06475495) | Albach 2026, PMID 42661098 |
| CD19 CAR-T efficacy | Median DAS28-CRP −34%; DAS28-CRP remission and ACR70 3/6; ACPA (anti-MCV) seroconversion 4/6; IgM-RF 5/6 | Same | Same | PMID 42661098 |
| JAK cycling vs biologic switch after first JAK failure, 12-month discontinuation | HR 0.27 (95% CI 0.10–0.71) | 186 people (44 cycled, 142 switched) | Multicenter retrospective cohort, IPTW | Tsai 2026, PMID 42869207 |
| Lung ultrasound for RA-ILD (≥5 B-lines) | Sensitivity 60.9%, specificity 63.7%, NPV 85%; negative LUS + normal DLCO NPV 100% (95% CI 82–100) | 103 at-risk RA patients; HRCT ILD in 22.3% | Cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy vs HRCT | Kouna 2026, PMID 42873714 |
| RF seroprevalence | 9.3%; stable in 94.5% | 469,036 UK Biobank participants with RF testing | Population biobank serology | Hocaoğlu 2026, PMID 42378266 |
| CHIP and incident seropositive RA | HR 1.26 (95% CI 1.03–1.52); DNMT3A-CHIP late-onset HR 1.45 (1.13–1.96); no association with seronegative RA | 612,989 participants in All of Us, BioVU and UK Biobank | Pooled biobank survival analysis | Zhao 2026, PMID 41847932 |
| Early inflammatory arthritis seen ≤3 weeks / DMARD ≤6 weeks of referral | 42% / 53% | 10,695 patients from 122 of 127 eligible providers, England, Wales and Jersey, April 2025–March 2026 (all newly diagnosed EIA, not RA alone) | National clinical audit (NEIAA Year 8) | (British Society for Rheumatology / NEIAA — "State of the Nation Summary Report 2026", https://www.rheumatology.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/Practice_Quality/Audit/NEIA/2026/National_Early_Inflammatory_Autoimmune_Diseases_Audit_State_of_the_Nation_Summary_Report_2026.pdf, accessed 2026-10-18) |
| EIA DAS28 remission at 3 months | 33% (50% of eligible records had a 3-month DAS28) | Same | Same | Same |
| Same-day DMARD start and 3-month remission | 38% vs 27%; adjusted odds 48% higher | Same | Same | Same |
2026-10-25 sweep additions¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RA-ILD incidence, Optum EHR | 3.9 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 3.7–4.1) | US eligible database population, 2019–2024; denominator is the full base population, not only people with RA | Diagnosis-code identification; age/sex adjustment to US Census population; full-text Table 2, RA-ILD column | Martins 2026, PMID 42909770 |
| RA-ILD incidence, MarketScan | 5.3 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 4.8–5.9) | US Commercial/Medicare database base population, 2019–2024; not an RA-only denominator | Same method; full-text Table 2, separate database estimate | Martins 2026, PMID 42909770 |
The two database estimates are retained separately. They measure coded RA-ILD incidence in the respective base populations, not the proportion of screened RA patients with HRCT abnormalities. The abstract's overall CTD-ILD rates must not be substituted for these RA-specific values. The earlier CARDINAL-RA row is clarified to name its nonfatal-event composite after full-text verification (McClenahan 2026, PMID 42877103).
2026-11-01 sweep additions¶
| Metric | Figure | Population/year | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bDMARD discontinuation vs dose reduction/maintenance, flare RR | 2.13 (95% CI 1.74–2.61) | 11 studies (10 RCTs + 1 extension); 2,861 people; search to 1 Feb 2026 | Pairwise random-effects meta-analysis | Lee 2026, PMID 42269230 |
| Same, early RA (<2 years) | RR 1.62 (95% CI 1.25–2.10) | Subgroup of the same synthesis | Same | PMID 42269230 |
| Same, established RA | RR 2.31 (95% CI 1.89–2.82) | Same | Same | PMID 42269230 |
| Recapture after bDMARD restart | 87.5% (95% CI 82.4–91.6); median 12.4 weeks | Same | Pooled capture rate | PMID 42269230 |
| Anti-TNF tapering, remission RR / flare RR | 0.69 (0.57–0.84) / 1.96 (1.57–2.45) | 15 RCTs; 2,782 people; search Feb 2024 | Pairwise meta-analysis of taper vs standard dose | Rotea-Salvo 2026, PMID 42963167 |
| JAK-inhibitor tapering, LDA RR / remission RR | 0.83 (0.76–0.91) / 0.86 (0.75–0.99) | Same review | Same | PMID 42963167 |
| JAK1 vs pan-JAK discontinuation HR | 0.72 (95% CI 0.61–0.85) | 7 observational studies; 21,244 people | Real-world retention meta-analysis | Lee 2026, PMID 42034889 |
| JAK1 vs pan-JAK, lack-of-efficacy discontinuation HR | 0.68 (95% CI 0.55–0.84) | Same | Same | PMID 42034889 |
| TNF vs JAK serious infection HR | 0.55 (95% CI 0.39–0.77); E-value 2.39 | 5,018 Japanese claims new users (4,042 TNF / 976 JAK) | Overlap-weighted cohort | Ota 2026, PMID 41422438 |
| NZ GP age-standardised RA incidence | 26.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 22.8–30.9) | Pinnacle general-practice dataset, 2018–2025; 3,831 people with RA | WHO age-standardised SNOMED-coded incidence | Lao 2026, PMID 42490391 |
| NZ GP age-standardised RA prevalence | 417.5 per 100,000 (95% CI 402.8–432.1) | Same | Same, prevalence | PMID 42490391 |
| NZ incident RA SMR vs general population | 1.07 (95% CI 0.80–1.34) | Incident RA in the same dataset | Standardised mortality ratio | PMID 42490391 |